Northwestern St.

Conference:	Slnd
Expected RPI:	342.0
Current RPI:	342
Expected SOS:	287
Current SOS:	287
Current Record:	2-23
Expected Record:	2-23
Current Conf Record:	1-17
Expected Conf Record:	1-17
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	2-13
Current OOC Record:	1-6
Expected OOC Record:	1-6
Expected OOC RPI:	291
Expected OOC SOS:	220

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
2-23	342.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northwestern St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Texas (51.0)	B12	A	105-59	L	0%
11-15	SMU (113.0)	Amer	A	81-35	L	0%
11-17	Rice (328.0)	CUSA	H	65-87	L	0%
11-21	Louisiana Monroe (219.0)	SB	A	61-76	W	100%
11-24	Colorado St. (234.0)	MWC	A	72-60	L	0%
12-19	Oklahoma (49.0)	B12	A	105-68	L	0%
12-20	Utah (59.0)	P12	A	84-62	L	0%
12-28	Nicholls St. (145.0)	Slnd	A	87-46	L	0%
12-30	McNeese St. (297.0)	Slnd	A	72-63	L	0%
1-3	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (326.0)	Slnd	A	67-65	L	0%
1-6	Stephen F. Austin (104.0)	Slnd	H	56-64	L	0%
1-13	Abilene Christian (260.0)	Slnd	H	58-69	L	0%
1-17	Sam Houston St. (206.0)	Slnd	A	75-52	L	0%
1-20	Southeastern Louisiana (150.0)	Slnd	A	85-58	L	0%
1-24	New Orleans (239.0)	Slnd	H	67-73	L	0%
1-27	Central Arkansas (223.0)	Slnd	H	78-95	L	0%
1-31	New Orleans (239.0)	Slnd	A	82-64	L	0%
2-3	McNeese St. (297.0)	Slnd	H	62-75	L	0%
2-7	Lamar (230.0)	Slnd	H	75-79	L	0%
2-10	Stephen F. Austin (104.0)	Slnd	A	97-50	L	0%
2-14	Houston Baptist (345.0)	Slnd	H	70-77	L	0%
2-21	Incarnate Word (347.0)	Slnd	A	54-66	W	100%
2-24	Southeastern Louisiana (150.0)	Slnd	H	62-86	L	0%
2-28	Nicholls St. (145.0)	Slnd	H	70-73	L	0%
3-3	Central Arkansas (223.0)	Slnd	A	61-58	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northwestern St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Northwestern St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Northwestern St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Northwestern St.	Slnd	26.29	26.29	11.38	11.38	-20.30	-20.30
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	5.06	5.06	78.57	78.57	2.89	2.89
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	5.03	5.03	60.71	60.71	1.08	1.08
New Orleans	Slnd	4.97	4.97	38.46	38.46	-1.15	-1.15
Central Arkansas	Slnd	4.96	4.96	46.67	46.67	-0.33	-0.33
Nicholls St.	Slnd	4.95	4.95	57.69	57.69	0.76	0.76
McNeese St.	Slnd	4.84	4.84	26.09	26.09	-2.32	-2.32
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	3.02	3.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Lamar	Slnd	2.97	2.97	51.85	51.85	0.11	0.11
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	2.93	2.93	28.00	28.00	-1.29	-1.29
Abilene Christian	Slnd	2.92	2.92	42.31	42.31	-0.45	-0.45
Houston Baptist	Slnd	2.91	2.91	7.41	7.41	-2.48	-2.48
Incarnate Word	Slnd	2.89	2.89	13.04	13.04	-2.13	-2.13
Louisiana Monroe	SB	2.16	2.16	48.15	48.15	-0.08	-0.08
SMU	Amer	2.11	2.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Rice	CUSA	2.07	2.07	14.29	14.29	-1.48	-1.48
Texas	B12	2.06	2.06	56.25	56.25	0.26	0.26
Oklahoma	B12	2.06	2.06	56.67	56.67	0.27	0.27
Colorado St.	MWC	2.00	2.00	30.00	30.00	-0.80	-0.80
Utah	P12	2.00	2.00	62.07	62.07	0.48	0.48
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.36	0.36	80.65	80.65	0.22	0.22
Baylor	B12	0.26	0.26	54.84	54.84	0.03	0.03
Houston	Amer	0.25	0.25	78.79	78.79	0.15	0.15
Texas St.	SB	0.25	0.25	41.94	41.94	-0.04	-0.04
Tulane	Amer	0.23	0.23	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Little Rock	SB	0.23	0.23	20.00	20.00	-0.14	-0.14
Texas Tech	B12	0.23	0.23	72.73	72.73	0.10	0.10
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.21	0.21	43.33	43.33	-0.03	-0.03
Oregon	P12	0.19	0.19	64.71	64.71	0.06	0.06
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.19	0.19	57.58	57.58	0.03	0.03
TCU	B12	0.19	0.19	65.62	65.62	0.06	0.06
North Texas	CUSA	0.18	0.18	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
UTSA	CUSA	0.18	0.18	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.17	0.17	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Iowa St.	B12	0.16	0.16	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
UTEP	CUSA	0.15	0.15	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
San Diego St.	MWC	0.14	0.14	67.74	67.74	0.05	0.05
Arkansas St.	SB	0.14	0.14	30.00	30.00	-0.06	-0.06
South Alabama	SB	0.14	0.14	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.14	0.14	69.70	69.70	0.05	0.05
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.13	0.13	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
USC	P12	0.13	0.13	67.65	67.65	0.05	0.05
UCLA	P12	0.13	0.13	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Tulsa	Amer	0.13	0.13	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
UCF	Amer	0.13	0.13	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Kansas	B12	0.13	0.13	79.41	79.41	0.07	0.07
Kansas St.	B12	0.13	0.13	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
West Virginia	B12	0.13	0.13	70.59	70.59	0.05	0.05
Morehead St.	OVC	0.12	0.12	22.22	22.22	-0.07	-0.07
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.12	0.12	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Idaho	BSky	0.11	0.11	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
UAB	CUSA	0.11	0.11	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
UT Arlington	SB	0.11	0.11	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Lipscomb	ASun	0.10	0.10	68.97	68.97	0.04	0.04
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.10	0.10	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Memphis	Amer	0.10	0.10	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
UMBC	AE	0.10	0.10	67.74	67.74	0.04	0.04
Air Force	MWC	0.10	0.10	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
LSU	SEC	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
UNLV	MWC	0.10	0.10	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.10	0.10	12.50	12.50	-0.08	-0.08
Missouri	SEC	0.10	0.10	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.10	0.10	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Colorado	P12	0.10	0.10	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Utah St.	MWC	0.10	0.10	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Arizona	P12	0.10	0.10	79.41	79.41	0.06	0.06
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.10	0.10	24.24	24.24	-0.05	-0.05
California	P12	0.10	0.10	25.81	25.81	-0.05	-0.05
Boise St.	MWC	0.09	0.09	73.33	73.33	0.04	0.04
Wichita St.	Amer	0.09	0.09	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Cincinnati	Amer	0.09	0.09	88.24	88.24	0.07	0.07
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Gonzaga	WCC	0.07	0.07	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
Georgia Southern	SB	0.07	0.07	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Oakland	Horz	0.07	0.07	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.07	0.07	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Seattle	WAC	0.07	0.07	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.07	0.07	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Troy	SB	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Villanova	BE	0.07	0.07	88.24	88.24	0.05	0.05
Georgia St.	SB	0.07	0.07	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
FIU	CUSA	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.07	0.07	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Arizona St.	P12	0.07	0.07	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Kent St.	MAC	0.07	0.07	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Longwood	BSth	0.07	0.07	13.33	13.33	-0.05	-0.05
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.07	0.07	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Notre Dame	ACC	0.07	0.07	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Samford	SC	0.07	0.07	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Valparaiso	MVC	0.07	0.07	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Washington	P12	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Washington St.	P12	0.07	0.07	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.06	0.06	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Fresno St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Nevada	MWC	0.06	0.06	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
San Jose St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	10.34	10.34	-0.05	-0.05
Wyoming	MWC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Butler	BE	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.06	0.06	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
San Francisco	WCC	0.06	0.06	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Connecticut	Amer	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
East Carolina	Amer	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
South Florida	Amer	0.06	0.06	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Florida	SEC	0.04	0.04	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
UMKC	WAC	0.04	0.04	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.04	0.04	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.04	0.04	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.04	0.04	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
USC Upstate	ASun	0.04	0.04	10.71	10.71	-0.03	-0.03
Appalachian St.	SB	0.04	0.04	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.04	0.04	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.04	0.04	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.04	0.04	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.04	0.04	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.04	0.04	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.04	0.04	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.04	0.04	87.88	87.88	0.03	0.03
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.04	0.04	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Providence	BE	0.04	0.04	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.04	0.04	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.04	0.04	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
UC Davis	BW	0.04	0.04	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.04	0.04	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.04	0.04	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Charlotte	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
College of Charleston	CAA	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.03	0.03	76.67	76.67	0.02	0.02
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Utah Valley	WAC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
BYU	WCC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Hawaii	BW	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Oregon St.	P12	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Stanford	P12	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.02	-0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	83.33	83.33	0.02	0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Portland	WCC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.02	-0.02
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Winthrop	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.02	-0.02
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
New Hampshire	AE	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Temple	Amer	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
VCU	A10	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00